DEP Press Advisory on Deer Hunting Cancellation, October 2, 2001

NYC 9/11 Public Portal Document

populations decades ago and would Experts agree that the easiest nu­ If able to brew up swarms of lethal be, theoretically at least, difficult to clear weapon to acquire would be microbes — a dangerous process — a obtain. But the Centers for Disease radiological, sometimes known as a terrorist would have to coax the frag­ Control and Prevention sees small­ “dirty nuke.” These use conventional ile rod-shaped bacteria into forming pox as a top threat. One reason; If high explosives to scatter highly ra­ spores, a hardy, hardened, dormant unleashed, the virus can spread rap­ dioactive materials to poison targets state. Doing so can be a tricky step idly because of its extreme conta­ rather than destroying them with involving heat or chemical shock. giousness. blast and heat. Their effects on peo­ Even with a supply of deadly bugs, A lengthy G.A.O. report in Septem­ ple range from radiation sickness to a terrorist would face dispersion hur­ ber 1999 found some threats plausi­ cancer. dles. For instance, commercial crop­ ble and others doubtful. The report Iraq tested such a bomb in 1987 but dusters usually dispense liquids, and saw more risk from substances al­ scrapped the project as too hard, the their nozzles produce droplets far too ready in wide use, like chlorine, an radiation levels too low. large to get deep into human lungs. A industrial gas that is highly toxic. terrorist would have to do major But the report ranked most germ “At worst, a dispersal device could create a lot of panic,” said Dr, Frank modifications to adapt the sprayer’s agents as only possible or unlikely nozzles to produce a finer mist of threats. von Hippie, a physicist who advised the Clinton White House and now particles. “Although most biological agents Dr. Richard Spertzel, a former are easy to grow if the seed stock can teaches science policy at Princeton, head of biological inspections in Iraq be obtained,” Henry L. Hinton Jr., a “It’s more a psychological weapon. for the United Nations, said Baghdad G.A.O. official, said at a House hear­ My chances of getting cancer might tried to make such nozzle modifica­ ing in October 1999, “they are diffi­ increase from 20 to 20,5 percent,” He tions before the Persian Gulf war but cult to process into a lethal form and added that federal officials are successfully deliver to achieve large- “overdoing the warnings, in terms of scale casualties.” For instance, he panicking people.” said, the microscopic particles of an People are also stocking up on Even if he has deadly infective mist had to be just the right bottled water, fearful that terrorists size to penetrate deep into human could poison reservoirs. But germ bugs, a terrorist faces lungs and start infections. warfare experts dismiss such In July 2000, the G.A.O. faulted the nation’s spies, saying intelligence of­ threats as verging on the impossible. dispersion hurdles. “Municipal water supplies are ficials at times falsely portrayed very difficult to contaminate to chemical, biological, radiological cause widespread casualties,” Fred- and nuclear arms as easy for terror- enck R. SidellTWiHiam C. Patrick in encountered great difficulties and ists to make and use. the lack of was forced to buy needed parts caveats, Norman J. Rabkin, a G.A.O. and Thomas R. Dashiell wrote in abroad. official, told a House subcommittee, “Jane’s Chem-Bio Handbook,” a Experts say dry anthrax is even may give policy makers in Congress 1998 reference used by the police, more difficult to make than the wet and the administration “an exagger­ doctors and firefighters. “Dilution variety but is better for attacks be­ ated view” of the mass-destruction and diffusion factors as well as chlo­ cause it can sail farther on the wind. threat. rination combine to make this type of However, shifting winds can also But intelligence officials denied operation nonfeasible.” complicate anthrax attacks, espe­ Perhaps the greatest current fear cially in urban areas. Cities generate any embellishing. In interviews, they is that terrorists will lace the air with heat, and rising air currents can noted that George J. Tenet, director lethal germs. The news that some of carry anthrax germs high into the of Central Intelligence, last year the accused hijackers had investigat­ atmosphere, diluting the cloud of mi­ warned Congress that terrorists ed crop-dusters caused a stir be­ crobes and making them less likely were exploring how “rapidly evolv­ cause experts had long identified the to kill. It takes an estimated 8,000 to ing and spreading technologies agricultural craft as a possible way 10,000 anthrax germs lodged in the might enhance the lethality” of to spread deadly pathogens. human lung to start a lethal infec­ strikes and that operatives of Osama Dr, Michael T. Osterholm, an epi­ tion. bin Ladin “have trained to conduct demiologist, warned of such an at­ “People don’t understand how dif­ attacks with toxic chemicals or bio­ tack in his 2000 book, “Living Ter­ ficult it is to pull off a biological logical toxins.” rors: What America Needs to Know attack,” said Dr. David R. Franz, a With national jitters high after the to Survive the Coming Bioterrorist former top official in the Army’s Sept. 11 attacks, many people are Catastrophe.” He envisioned a crop­ germ-defense program and now an making informal judgments about duster attacking a stadium with an­ officer at the Southern Research In­ what attacks might come next. Secu­ thrax, infecting 54,000 fans and near­ stitute, an arm of the University of rity experts, while often disagreeing by people. The disease of coughing Alabama. over long-term trends and dangers and high fevers is usually fatal un­ Dr. Steven M. Block, a germ-terror say most of these snap calls are less treated soon after exposure. expert at Stanford, agreed, “A crop­ overreactions. But in his book. Dr. Osterholm duster is likely to do a very bad job,” It is unlikely now, they say, that conceded that a number of factors, he said. But he noted that fears root­ terrorists could steal an atomic most especially fickle winds, make ed in unrealistic appraisals of the 'bomb, buy one on the black market such an attack “a risky proposition.” germ threat can greatly magnify an or crash a jet into a nuclear reactoi Other hurdles include getting the assault’s effectiveness. to produce a radioactive cloud. right strain, or subspecies, of the “A bad job may be all that’s neces­ germ. Experts say Bacillus anthra- sary to sow panic and disruption,” he iptv nonetheless abounds. jjj scores of different ones, noted, even if the attack itself pro­ nrp uo ” said Dan Sythe, pres- which would likely produce a duces “a mere handful” of fatalities Xt of international Medcom^^ weak or ineffectual weapon. or serious infections.

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