From: Schupperl@CommExec@Centre, on 9/24/01 10:47 AM:
To: EristoffA@CommExec@Centre
It's very dfficult to evaluate Crain's $3 billion figure without knowing the
assumptions and methodology they used .... but I would highly question their
motives for painting such a terrible picture....these things have a way of
being self fulfilling....the bottom line is everybody is guessing at this
point....our numbers should be seen as providing "rules of thumb" rather than
an aggregate estimate of the loss....this means that the final loss could
exceed a $1 billion if we lose more than 10,000 jobs in the economy, the
decline in hotel occupancy is greater than 20 percent,etc....clearly the
picture is not good right now, but no one knows how long it will last and how
strong a recovery the City and the nation will see....also it is important to
keep in mind that what we say will be evaluated by the bond ratings agencies
Visit the NYC Department of Finance online at www.nyc.gov/finance
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