NYC-WTC_000187725

NYC 9/11 Public Portal Document

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also use the model's output to identify which zones are likely to receive more shoppers, concluding from such information that some changes in zoning, such as putting more land into commercial space or into parking, may be justified in those zones where the density of shopping trips per square foot of land increases substantially. A scenario of station opening would work in the reverse.

Example Two; An Across-the-Board Travel Cost Increase As another example, we may consider analyzing the effect of an across-the-board increase in the cost of driving sparked by a permanent rise in the price of gasoline. When this happens, some commuters and shoppers will switch from driving to taking the bus, to riding the subway, or to walking, in order to avoid the higher monetary cost of auto-oriented modes. The model will capture all these behavioral changes for the commuters of each workplace zone. In addition, the model will simulate the changes in residential locations induced by increases in the expected cost of commuting and shopping travel. Clearly, after the auto cost increase, zones which are better served by transit and zones which are within walking distance of shopping destinations, or accessible to such destinations by transit, will become more attractive and thus receive more trips. Housing values and rents in such zones will increase while rents and values in zones which are more auto dependent will decrease. Compared to the station closing policy, which is expected to have spatially limited impacts on several zones in the immediate vicinity of the station, the across-the-board increase in the cost of auto travel can be expected to have changes in rents and values which are felt throughout the metropolitan area. It is a strength of the model that it is designed to evaluate both micro level and across-the-board type changes, although the relative accuracy of these two types of uses remain to be evaluated with careful empirical implementation of the model in the future.

Data Needs and Outputs of NYREG

We now describe the data needs of the unified regional equilibrium simulation model which is capable of predicting the effects of multimodal transportation improvements on residential and commercial real estate prices. The model is designed so that it can be easily applied to any metropolitan area for which the usual Census and travel data are available for a system of land use zones with sufficient geographic detail. Three aspects of the model's development are documented in the following section;

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