NYC-WTC_000187725

NYC 9/11 Public Portal Document

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walk to other stations. Hence, some zone-to-zone times might increase while others might decrease, depending upon the net effect of line haul time savings and access time increases. / •<{ The recomputed travel time changes for all zone pairs would be entered into the model. The model then simulates three responses of households to the travel time changes. First, some commuters whose travel times have increased may decide to switch to other modes, such as taxi, walking or driving. Second, zones near the closed station may become less attractive and may experience a relocation of households elsewhere, while other zones, of which the travel times decreased, become more attractive and experience an influx of households. Third, shopping trips will be affected because other modes may be used to travel to shopping destinations and because some shoppers may choose to shop at closer destinations. The netting out of these adjustments will have an effect upon the residential rent of zones affected by the station closing. Rents in those zones which experienced travel time savings will increase, while rents in those zones which experienced higher travel times will decrease. Similarly, zones which receive fewer shopping trips will see their commercial rents go down and zones which become busier with shoppers will see their commercial rents go up. Residential and commercial vacancies will move in opposite directions from rents; as the equilibrium demand for living (or shopping) in a zone falls, the equilibrium residential (or commercial) rent in that zone will decrease, while the equilibrium residential (or commercial) vacancies will increase. It is clear from the above discussion that the station closing will benefit some travelers while hurting others. The total net effect for travelers is computed by the model as the change in the consumer surplus after all the equilibrating adjustments have taken place. Similarly, while landlords in some zones will enjoy a windfall increase in rental income, others will suffer a loss. The total net effect for landlords is computed by the model as the producer surplus change. An economist doing a cost-benefit analysis of the station closing, would be interested in the sum of the producer surplus and consumer surplus changes less the cost of implementing the change in the transportation system (i.e. the closing of the station). If this criterion yields a positive value, the implication is that the station closing is a socially profitable public sector decision. Urban planners prefer to make more liberal interpretations of model output and they are rarely interested in aggregative cost­ benefit analysis. Hence, a planner may observe that the model indicates where and how much rents change and conclude from this that tax increment financing is called for to "capture" these increases for the public sector in order to offset the public sector’s costs associated with the station closing. Planners may

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CITY_21MC100_006662255

NYC-WTC_000187755