NYC-WTC_000187725

NYC 9/11 Public Portal Document

8 two models can be statistically linked such that zonal projections of NYREG, solved on a regional equilbrium basis, are further t disaggregated to the parcel level by NYSTA, utilizing the set of land use and radial distance equations around specific stations. With such results, the potential revenues raised by value capture means on a zone or regional level can be evaluated and implemented at the appropriate tax administration scale. Although we are aware of this complementarity we have not, in the current project, made an effort to link the two models. In the future, it might be possible to link the models sequentially so that NYREG predicts shifts in values among small geographic zones, while NYSTA allocates these changes among the parcels. Some Shortcomings of NYREG and NYSTA All models are subject to various shortcomings and the models developed here, NYREG and NYSTA, are no exception. The models have shortcomings which are common to both of them as well as individual limitations. Both models are static in nature, meaning that they are intended to model the relationships between property values and transportation systems at a sinlge point in time. However, there are various techniques by means of which each model can be extended and made dynamic. For NYREG, this would require following the example of CATLAS (the prior dynamic model on which it is partially based) and introducing a multiperiod structure. A dynamic NYREG would not only predict how values changed, but also how the housing and commercial building stocks evolved from one period to the next. This could not be done in the current project due to time limitations. Making NYSTA dynamic would require recognizing the time series nature of property values and reestimating the regression equations with time shifter variables. A dynamic structure would also allow the inclusion of an exogenous inflation parameter in the two models to help isolate real changes in values from inflationary ones. This would allow predictions of value shifts and changes under various assumed scenarios about overall inflation in the economy. Both models also share the limitation that rent control, while an important factor in New York City's housing market, is not included in the equations as an independent variable or in some other way. While we were aware of this limitation we could not incorporate rent control because we lacked data on the rent control status of individual properties and the proportion of rent controlled apartments in specified zones. While NYREG includes the effects of important influences on property values, trip making and housing choices, it is not a regional "economy model". Hence, it is not intended to capture the more profound effects of deep structural change in the New York

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NYC-WTC_000187739