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NYC 9/11 Public Portal Document

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Handbook. The model employs a unified treatment whereby housing tvpS/ residential location, commuting mode, shopping destination, shoppiri9 shopping mode choices are modeled simultaneously. Travel time improvements are capitalized into consumer and producer surpluses and the producer surplus is divided between the housing and commercial real estate markets.

hysTA; Station Area Model While major shifts in values among different parts of the region are important, it is also important to understand how values are likely to vary from parcel to parcel within a small geographic area or within a transport corridor. Changes which occur outside I the transit system are admittedly difficult to introduce into such a context. Therefore, the purpose of such a model is to examine i how values relate to one another in the proximity of a station under the assumption that outside influences are not causing major shifts in values at the regional scale. i

NYSTA, a station area model capable of predicting changes in land value at a radial distance around stations, has been developed as an empirical model from parcel-specific, station-specific and neighborhood data on the area served by the subway system within New York City. It is presented in detail in Chapter 3 of the ! Handbook. Built by multiple regression analysis, the model contains separate equations for vacant land and land developed in i residential and nonresidential uses, as well as for transport related forms of stratification, such as types of transit service. Given changes in various measures of transit accessibility, the model predicts changes in land value while keeping non-transit I related factors constant. Because of the multiplicity of factors affecting land value and the difficulty of assembling explanatory data, empirical models linking land value to particular access characteristics are rare. Since the shape of the Region's transit system has not changed much since 1940, and most areas served by transit stations are extensively developed with land values well capitalized and firm community character, the modeling emphasis is on cross-sectional, rather than time series, analysis. Cross-sectional analysis among station areas allows for determination of the relative importance of transit, land use, density, environmental, socioeconomic and all other major factors in establishing land value differences by location. Once isolated for their relative importance in space, across a spectrum of existing conditions, transit access factors can be varied to predict the increments or decrements in producer surplus or property benefits that will be capitalized into land value. The station area model should be seen as a natural complement to the regional equilbrium model. With further development, the

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