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NYC 9/11 Public Portal Document

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conomy travel patterns, housing choices and values, nor can it ^odel important changes in the national economy and how these might 'Effect the New York City economy. Structural changes in the local %d national economies can only be inputed into NYREG exogenously bv altering the income and job distribution among the approximately 400 workplaces represented in the model. While the scope of NYREG is limited in this sense, it is still much broader than the more limited scope of the UTPS which models only travel decisions v/ithout including important feedback effects. NYREG has solved this problem of the UTPS by modeling the feedbacks between the real estate and multimodal travel markets in an economicly defensible fashion. NYREG may also be criticized for being highly aggregated. In principle, with adequate data, NYREG's shopping trips component can be disaggregated to include many types of shopping by purpose which would enrich the model's ability to predict the impact of transport changes on various economic activities within the region. However, such disaggregation may not be necessary to get an overall prediction of value shifts which the current model does. The chief limitation of NYSTA is that it cannot measure the impact of changes in non-transit transport systems on property values. Hence, the model can only be applied under conditions of multimodal stability highly similar to the conditions of the calibration year. In the future, we plan to remedy this shortcoming by linking the regression constants in NYSTA with the predicted zonal values coming out of NYREG. One other notable limitation pertains to NYSTA's implicit assumption that the real estate market displays a consistently declining gradient from the core, or Central Business District of Manhattan, to New York City's suburban boundary. In reality, the profile of land value per square foot is substantially higher in Manhattan than in the other boroughs and, though suburban stations are not included, commercial subcenters or desireable residential neighborhoods of outer boroughs can achieve land values that peak over nearby areas closer into the Manhattan CBD. To some extent, NYSTA addresses this problem by stratifying equations by land use. I In the future, however, we plan to enhance the model with equations for specific boroughs and transit corridors, and with nonlinear regression methods that would yield nonconstant slopes that can vary with other variables in a systematic fashion. Despite these limitations, we feel that NYSTA offers an excellent second stage analysis to follow NYREG, or to be used by itself under conditions of stability.

Objective of Value Capture Financing Increasingly, local governments face seemingly insurmountable

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