NYC-WTC_000230778

NYC 9/11 Public Portal Document LEETESTIO OOTOWTZ ALIO rends matter They're not | everything, and they're sometimes “rong. Bui those who ignore them, especial ly in the heat of a political cam- paign, do so at their peril. And today, in the closing three days of the race for Mayor, the trends are all in Mike Bloomberg's favor. Despite a Quinnipiac poll that had Bloomberg trailing Mark Green by 16 percentage points | about 10 days ago, I recently compared the owwo campaigns’ competing strategies and wrole \that Bloomberg was coming on \ fast . Well, what was a budding NYC-WTC_000230778 gale last week has become a full-blown hurricane. The Latest Marist College poll has Green's lead down to four points, with 12% undecided. - More important, those famil- jar with the private polls of both campaigns say the race is even tighter — and with money to burn, Bloomberg's nightly sur- vey operation is more sophisti- cated, more timely and larger in sample size than any other pub- jic or private poll in recent mem- ory. * The Bloomberg numbers, which a key Green operative concedes aré “probahly not far from the mark,” have Green in front by just two points. Whichever survey you like, the race today appears tc be within the margin of error, and Green has been losing ground steadily, He @ Bloomberg’s backing among Latino voters is surging, a trend likely to continue as the Bloombergers publicize yester- day’s Daily News story about the invat could still win, especially since New York Dem- ocrais have a 3-0-1 registra: tion advantage over Repubii- cans, but the phrase that best describes the race Loday is that Dan Rather fa- vorme, “tight a3 a ck.” In bref, here’s what's happen- ing. ment of Green supporters in Freddy Ferrers ties lo the Rev. Al Sharpton That effort, dur- ing the closing days of last monih's Democratic runoff, was Largeted at Jewish voiers, many of whom revile Sharpton. Green has consistently de- MICHAEL KRAMER | Bloomberg’s riding the trend, bu . tA : nied that he or anyone who works for him was behind the flyers and phone calls that etn. phasized the Ferrer-Sharpton connection. But Green's denials are now in doubt, and Bloomberg will surely seek to fuel the controversy before Tuesday's election. HGreen maintains a healthy lead among African-American voters, but the question for hin is whether they'll vole in the numbers he needs. If black lead- ers offended by The News’ re- portage urge African-Ameri- cans to gtay home, Green could be doomed. Bthe Marist pol has Green one jebding ameng Latino and Jew- ish" voters — the inverse of Bloomberg's poll -- but Merist's director, Lee Miringoff, frankly admits: that Bloom- berg’s sample size was twice the Marist curvey’s and tallled more recently. WGreen has borrowed heavily for a fight of last-minute TV -6pots, but Bloomberg has been drastically outspending his rival all along, and the Bloomberg buy will continue to gent anything Green can marr “of the many ads Bloomberg's Live is the 60-second spot featur- will it go far enough? phisticated New York, with its and fume ing Mayor Giuliani's end ment. “Rudy's support came late,” asys a Bloomberg edviser. “But we're making the most of it. By the time we're through, I'd bet that huge numbers of voters will be uble to recite it by heart.” Paying his way ew will be surprised if the final accounting shows that Bloomberg spent close to $60 million of his own money — the most, by fer, for any local race in U.S. history, Many believe thal in big, #0- y ae caprasive press corps, even obscene smounis of private spending can’t guarantee victo- ry. Should Bloomberg win, it will be tempting to scuttle thai con- ceit. But there's another key consideration: Despite the early raves, Green has run a disappointing, predicated on his inevitabiliry. It might fail simply because Green was unable to convince voters that he's up to handling calls the second-cughest job ip America. 100Z ‘€ WAANAAON ‘SAVAUALLVS ‘SAAN ATIVA