Unreadable document fragment, Oct 2001

NYC-WTC_000117754 Global Warming - Impacts on Conservation GLOBAL Implications for Conservation Predicted Climate Changes | There is currently much evidence available, which suggests that we are experiencing a warming period. For example figure | shows a definite rising trend in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, while figure 2 shows a rise in global temperatures since the late 1950s. However what can be done to try and anticipate any future changes that could occur? Many models have been produced to try and predict future temperature changes with an increase in concentrations of ee ' greenhouse gases. These models, called Global Circulation Models i (GCMs) are based on the laws of physics, and simulate the dynamic behaviour of short-term weather patterns (Arnell, 1996). Most models predict that if the gas release continues at the same rate, there will be an average temperature increase of between 2.5°C and |! re ee ee, ee ee ee) 4.5°C by the middle of the next century (Gryj, 1998). The * Moathly average carbon Grnbde concensration: Mamma Loa, Hews. & esl was aonmncsiane 25 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (1990), agreed (ate ache an Few 7 on a common consensus that the global mean temperature is likely to rise at a rate of 0.3°C per decade. Therefore by 2005 the average temperature will be 1°C warmer than today, and by 2100 the global mean temperature will have increased by 3°C. Indeed, already in the 20th century there has been a warming trend of 0.5 to 2°C (Root & Shneider, 1993). Figure 2 These GCMs do simulate the large-scale characteristics of the present general circulation reasonably well. However they do operate on a coarse spatial scale, for example the UK Hadley Centre High ia | Resolution GCM has a spatial resolution of approximately 80 000 km? http://members.netscapeonline.co.uk/sgpickup/predicted.html Page 1 of 2 6/17/01 * € NYC 9/11 Public Portal Document